Explosive Weapons Monitor Shows Explosive Weapons Increased Civilian Harm in 2022

Katherine Young, Explosive Weapons Monitor

The number of civilians killed or injured by explosive weapon use globally soared by 83 percent in 2022 compared to 2021, according to the Explosive Weapons Monitor’s first report, released on April 24, 2023. The Explosive Weapons Monitor is a civil society initiative that conducts research and analysis on harms from and practices of explosive weapon use in populated areas for the International Network on Explosive Weapons (INEW).

The significant increase in civilian casualties was largely due to explosive weapon use by Russian armed forces in Ukraine during the full-scale invasion that began in February 2022. Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), an Explosive Weapons Monitor partner that records incidents of explosive weapon use that cause civilian and armed-actor casualties reported in English-language media, recorded just 28 casualties in Ukraine in 2021 compared to 10,351 in 2022.

Raisa fled with her husband, son, and dog when their village in Ukraine was bombed. This vase is the only thing that survived from her home. Credit: Mines Advisory Group | Sean Sutton, 2022.

The new report, Two Years of Global Harm to Civilians from the Use of Explosive Weapons (2021-2022), shows that while explosive weapon use and civilian harm were generally widespread and severe across the globe in 2021 and 2022, the emergence and escalation of armed conflict, where fighting in urban areas heightened the risk of civilian harm, specifically increased challenges to the protection of civilians. This trend was reflected in the relatively short military operations in Gaza City, where airstrikes levelled high-rise residential buildings in 2021, and also in the drawn-out situation of armed conflict in Ukraine where both ground- and air-launched explosive weapons were used across major towns and cities in 2022. In both years, explosive weapons were frequently used in armed conflict despite the well-documented risks they pose to civilians.

The report identifies patterns of harm from the use of explosive weapons around the world and, in doing so, demonstrates a clear need to take steps to prevent the harm to civilians caused by the use of explosive weapons and to provide necessary and lifesaving assistance to victims and survivors. As a result, the report reinforces existing understandings of civilian harm and bolsters efforts to address it, including through implementation of the commitments in the recently adopted Political Declaration on Strengthening the Protection of Civilians from the Humanitarian Consequences arising from the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas. These patterns include the following:

The use of explosive weapons continues to be widespread and has devastating consequences on civilians and communities across the world.

The use of explosive weapons globally inflicted more than 32,000 civilian casualties in 2021 and 2022, according to AOAV. On average, civilians accounted for 63 percent of all those recorded killed or injured by explosive weapons, both in and out of armed conflict, in 2021 and 2022. Beyond death and injury, civilians experienced other indirect, or reverberating, effects with far-reaching humanitarian consequences, including damage and destruction of critical civilian infrastructure that affected access to health care, education, and humanitarian aid in more than 1,150 incidents across 40 countries and territories, as reported by Insecurity Insight.

Contemporary armed conflicts are a significant source of civilian harm from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, due to fighting in urban areas.

While explosive weapon use and civilian harm were widespread and severe across the globe in 2021 and 2022, the emergence and escalation of armed conflict, where fighting in urban areas puts civilians at heightened risk of harm, presented significant challenges to the protection of civilians. In 2022, AOAV recorded an 83 percent increase in civilian casualties reportedly caused by explosive weapon use compared to 2021. This increase was largely due to the extensive use of explosive weapons in armed conflict in Ukraine, as well as in Ethiopia, Myanmar, and Somalia.

Explosive weapons, particularly those with wide area effects, cause high levels of death and injury to civilians when used in towns, cities, and other populated areas.

When explosive weapons are used in areas where civilians are concentrated, the weapons’ blast and fragmentation cause a predictable pattern of harm. In 2021 and 2022, that pattern of civilian casualties was consistent with that of the last decade. Of all those reported killed and injured by the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, 90 percent were civilians.

A significant proportion of civilian harm caused by the use of explosive weapons comes from the indirect, or reverberating, effects.

Indirect, also known as reverberating, effects occur when the impacts of an explosive weapon extend beyond the immediate time and area of an explosion. When explosive weapon use destroys civilian infrastructure, for example, it often disrupts the provision of essential services, leading to long-term civilian suffering. In 2021 and 2022, Insecurity Insight recorded incidents of explosive weapon use that damaged and destroyed hospitals, schools, and aid infrastructure, which then affected civilian access to health care in at least 768 incidents, access to education in 301 incidents, and the provision of humanitarian aid in 195 incidents.

The direct and indirect, or reverberating, effects of explosive weapon use often overlap, ultimately compounding harm to civilians.

The concentration of civilians in towns and cities, and interconnected civilian infrastructure systems, mean that explosive weapons have an elevated likelihood of causing extended and varied harm when they are used in populated areas. For example, an attack on the Drama Theatre in Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 16, 2022, killed and injured civilians who had taken shelter after bombing and shelling by Russian armed forces in the city. Hospitals in Mariupol had already been damaged by or destroyed, diminishing access to care for civilians in need. The attack also left homes destroyed and residents without access to water, electricity, gas, phone service, or internet.

The recently adopted Political Declaration on the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas recognizes the humanitarian consequences of such use and provides a framework for all stakeholders to work together to move away from bombing and shelling in populated areas over time.

The Declaration is the first formal international recognition that the use of explosive weapons in populated areas has severe humanitarian consequences and poses unacceptable risks to civilians. It provides an opportunity for the international community to work together to significantly reduce and mitigate the risk of harm to civilians from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas by placing limits on the use of explosive weapons in towns, cities, and other populated areas, and by committing states to provide assistance to victims and affected communities. Its data collection provisions can likewise serve to set norms and establish good practice for all stakeholders to record not only deaths and injuries from explosive weapon use, but also broader economic and social impacts.

For more than a decade, international and civil society organizations have documented the patterns of harm from the use of explosive weapons, in which civilians overwhelmingly bear the brunt of their use in populated areas. This documentation was crucial in the push for the development and adoption of the Declaration. In this report, the Explosive Weapons Monitor continues this important work. Not only does the documentation of these harms fulfill a moral obligation to understand and recognize victims of armed conflict, it also provides an evidential basis for harm reduction that can inform operational changes and responses and, in turn, implementation of the Declaration’s commitments.

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