Anna Kate Manchester, Armed Conflict and Civilian Protection Initiative
Almost two months into 2026, the humanitarian disarmament space is facing threats with the end of a significant nuclear arms control treaty, the adoption of dangerous policies on antipersonnel landmines and artificial intelligence (AI) in the military, and increased militarization across the globe. Such developments have pushed the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight than ever before. Undaunted, however, humanitarian disarmament actors have marked the new year by taking steps to reinforce and strengthen the international law that protects civilians from arms-inflicted harm. Supporters of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) celebrated the fifth anniversary of its entry into force on January 22, and that same day, Lebanon published its decision in its Official Gazette that it would accede to the Mine Ban Treaty. In addition, states parties to the Convention on Conventional Weapons (CCW) are developing a draft text that would be a good basis for negotiating a new treaty, and the Global IHL Initiative brought together states, international organizations, and civil society to strengthen international humanitarian law.
In case you missed it…
- On December 19, the Washington Post reported that a December 2 internal memo signed by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reversed a policy from the Biden administration that prohibited the use of antipersonnel landmines everywhere except the Korean Peninsula. In the memo, Hegseth calls for a new policy that eliminates geographic limitations on use, confines landmine destruction to those that are “inoperable or unsafe,” and grants combatant commanders the authority to use antipersonnel landmines. Ben Linden, advocacy director for Europe and Central Asia for Amnesty International USA, called the new policy change “a major setback for the protection of civilians in conflict zones.”
- The US Department of Defense issued a memo on January 9 regarding how to “accelerate America’s Military AI Dominance.” The policy calls for integrating AI into all areas of the US military, including warfighting and intelligence. The short deadlines for development provided by the new policy raise grave cocnerns, as they leave little time for consideration of the dangers posed by AI in this domain. The policy explicitly prioritizes speed over safety, stating, for example, that “the risks of not moving fast enough outweigh the risks of imperfect alignment.”
- On January 20, Defense News reported that defense-technology startups had their most successful fiscal year to date in 2025, with venture capital deals increasing in value from US$27.2 billion to US$49.1 billion since the end of 2024. Contributing to this massive investment expansion are the defense budget increases happening across Europe, as well as the deployment of drones and systems using AI in Ukraine.
- January 22 marked the fifth anniversary of the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Reflecting on the progress made since the TPNW went into effect, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) highlighted the significance of the ban on nuclear weapons under international law, the increased attention to and discussion of victim assistance and environmental remediation, and the pledges of hundreds of financial institutions not to finance nuclear weapons-producing companies. Read more about how ICAN and others around the world celebrated five years of the TPNW here.
- Also on January 22, Norwegian People’s Aid published a report exploring the downstream effects of the more than 2,000 nuclear tests conducted between 1945 and 2017, which are estimated to cause an additional two million cancer deaths around the world. The report, entitled Is it Safe? A Framework for Assessing and Addressing the Ongoing Humanitarian and Environmental Consequences of Nuclear Testing, finds that while the negative impacts of these tests are felt across the globe, Indigenous Peoples and populations living in formerly colonized territories are among the most negatively impacted groups. The report also calls for measures to address this harm, including apologies, release of data, support for victim assistance and environmental remediation, and an inclusive approach.
- In late January, the International Campaign to Ban Landmines-Cluster Munition Coalition (ICBL-CMC) and others welcomed Lebanon’s decision to join the Mine Ban Treaty. The country’s Official Gazette published the decision on January 22. The decision will only have legal effect six months after the country deposits its instrument of accession with the United Nations, which it has yet to do.
- On January 23, Belgium implemented an arms embargo against Israel, reported the Middle East Monitor. The arms embargo includes, among other terms, a prohibition on aircraft carrying weapons and military equipment to Israel from entering Belgian airspace, as well as the elimination of legal loopholes that previously allowed such aircraft to make technical stops in Belgium on their way to Israel.
- On January 27, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board announced its decision to set the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight, which is closer than ever before. The board expressed concerns about the emergence of a “full-blown [nuclear] arms race,” accompanied by threats of use and testing and a general breakdown of multilateralism. It warned of the dangers of the United States, Russia, and China “incorporating AI across their defense sectors.” The board also attributed the “increased . . . probability of catastrophe” to “failure[s] of leadership” by these and other states and highlighted problems related to the current state of international cooperation and climate change. Read the board’s full 2026 Doomsday Clock statement here, and watch the livestream announcement here.
- The chair of the Convention on Conventional Weapons Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) held an informal virtual consultation on January 28 with observers, including states not party, and international, regional, and nongovernmental organizations. The meeting discussed changes made to the GGE’s rolling text outlining possible elements of a future instrument on LAWS. The chair also took the opportunity to discuss his plans for the upcoming March 2026 session of the GGE on LAWS. Read Reaching Critical Will’s summary and analysis of the informal consultation here.
- Also on January 30, Reuters reported that Canada intends to continue working toward its proposed multilateral defense bank in collaboration with its international partners. A representative of the Canadian government suggested that the purpose of this endeavor was to assist NATO member countries and other European states in rearming, given the United States’ recent scaling-back of support for and commitments to European defense.
- The third Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) Summit met in A Coruña, Spain, from February 4–5. Representatives of states, civil society, industry, and academia convened to discuss how to “translate previously agreed principles into effective and tangible measures.” The outcome document, entitled “Pathways to Action,” lists steps designed to operationalize principles, but it does not constitute the “legal safeguards” that the Stop Killer Robots campaign has called for.
- February 5 marked the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) agreed to by Russia and the United States in 2010 during the Obama administration. While both countries continued to possess significant nuclear arsenals, New START limited strategic and deployed nuclear weaons. These arsenals are likely to increase now that New START has lapsed. Read ICAN’s explanation of New START and the countries’ continuing international law obligations here.
- The Global IHL Initiative: Humanity in War held consultations on disarmament as part of its workstream on “International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and Peace” on February 5. Participants addressed questions including how to strengthen adherence to humanitarian disarmament amid current challenges and how disarmament measures can support long-term resilience and peace. Consultations two days earlier addressed the protection of civilian infrastructure and were relevant to the use of explosive weapons in populated areas. The International Committee of the Red Cross launched the initiative with Brazil, China, France, Jordan, Kazakhstan, and South Africa to develop concrete recommendations to promote compliance with IHL. Statements are expected to be posted online in the future; Human Rights Watch’s statements on disarmament and infrastructure are already available.
- On February 6, dockworkers across the Mediterranean engaged in an International Joint Day of Action against port complicity in wars around the world. Dockworkers from Greece, Italy, Turkey, and other states went on strike, specifically protesting arms shipments to Israel and the European Union’s rearmament goals under its Readiness 2030 plan.
- Also on February 6, President Trump signed an executive order establishing the new American First Arms Transfer Strategy. The goals of this new strategy include maintaining the US’s “comparative advantage in arms transfers,” ensuring that arms sales “prioritize American interests,” and increasing capacity to “support [the] military and [US] allies and partners.” By prioritizing arms sales to states and partners whose interests align with those of the United States, the America First Arms Transfer Strategy signals a new era of arms-centered diplomacy. Read the Forum on the Arms Trade’s analysis of the new strategy here.
- On February 10, dozens of humanitarian disarmament advocates convened online for a follow-up meeting to their annual Humanitarian Disarmament Forum in New York in October. Organized by the Forum on the Arms Trade, the recent gathering provided campaigners an opportunity to discuss how to advance the movement in challenging times.
- On February 18, 36 organizations issued an open letter opposing the reported US purchase of cluster munitions by a government-owned Israeli defense company. Under the US$210 million deal, reported in the Intercept on February 6, the United States will buy 155mm cluster munitions over three years from the company Tomer. The letter highlights the “severe, foreseeable dangers to civilians” of cluster munitions and calls on Congress to stop the purchase and transfer of these weapons.
- On February 27, President Trump ordered all government agencies to halt their interactions with technologies produced by AI company Anthropic. Anthropic objected to the use of its AI in military operations in Venezuela and elsewhere, claiming that applying its products for violent ends violates its terms of service. Despite Trump’s ban, however, the military reportedly relied on Claude, Anthropic’s AI model, in carrying out the February 28 strikes on Iran.
Looking ahead, the CCW Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems will convene in Geneva for its first session of the year from March 2–6. Arms Trade Treaty working group meetings will take place in Geneva from March 16–19. From April 27–May 22, the 11th Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference will be held at the UN headquarters in New York.
This post expresses the views of the author and does not necessarily represent the views of the Armed Conflict and Civilian Protection Initiative (ACCPI), Harvard Law School’s International Human Rights Clinic, or Harvard University.